据海湾新闻网2023年7月4日迪拜/伦敦报道，欧佩克+是一个由石油输出国组织（欧佩克）和包括产能大国在内的非欧佩克产油国组成的集团，其原油产量占世界原油总产量的40%左右，自去年11月以来，面对油价低迷，欧佩克+一直在削减原油产量。
欧佩克成员国沙特阿拉伯和产能大国周一进一步削减原油供应以推高油价。这两个国家是世界上最大的原油出口国。然而，此举只是短暂提振了市场。
这两次减产都是在4月份最初引入的更广泛的欧佩克+减产协议的基础上进行的，该协议将限制供应持续到2024年，并将宣布的原油日总产量减少500万桶以上，约占全球原油总产量的5%。4月份的意外宣布减产加深了去年11月份推出的减产措施，并在随后的日子里推动油价每桶上涨约9美元，至每桶87美元以上。
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但此后基准原油价格回吐了这些涨幅，7月4日布伦特原油期货交易价格略低于每桶76美元。
欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)分析师认为，进一步减产“将无助于改变市场的看跌情绪，目前市场对今年下半年原油需求增长前景感到悲观”。
以下是欧佩克+减产未能显著提振油价的4个主要原因：
1. 对需求疲软的担忧
来自亚洲的数据引发了人们的担忧，即世界第二大原油消费国从疫情封锁中复苏的速度正在减缓。
德国商业银行分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇说：“尽管该国原油需求的数据证明是强劲的，但在取消社交限制后，该国的经济复苏明显比预期的要缓慢。”
弗里奇表示，该国原油需求的飙升在很大程度上是去年需求下降后的一种追赶效应，而这种增长势头可能会大幅放缓。
2. 更高的利率
更令人担忧的是，包括美联储（FED）在内的主要央行警告称，为了对抗顽固的高通胀，可能会进一步加息。
更高的利率会侵蚀消费者的可支配收入，并可能导致驾车和旅行支出减少，从而限制原油需求。
更高的利率还推高了制造商的成本，数据显示制造行业复苏正在放缓。
石油经纪商PVM分析师Tamas Varga表示：“没有任何拐弯抹角，全球各地的工厂都在苦苦挣扎，日本、欧元区、英国和美国的制造业萎缩，而制造业也在6月放缓。”
这一切都意味着，投资者并不认同今年下半年全球原油需求将强劲反弹的观点。
有预测称，大量原油将需要使用之前的库存以满足供应需求，这一预测尤其令人怀疑。
“国际能源署(IEA)和石油输出国组织(欧佩克)均继续预测全球原油日产量将增加200万桶，但随着时间的推移，这些预测的可信度正在下降，市场需要一些时间才能出现有意义的调整。”欧亚集团表示。
3. 美国产量增加
美国产量增速快于预期，也助长了市场对油价上涨的悲观情绪。
EIA预计，今年美国原油日产量将增加72万桶达到1261万桶，高于此前该机构预测的日增64万桶。
相比之下，2018年美国的原油日产量约为1000万桶。
4. 看涨程度低
2020年，沙特能源大臣萨勒曼警告交易商不要在石油市场上大举押注，称那些押注油价的人将“像在地狱一样痛苦”。
在6月4日欧佩克+会议之前，萨勒曼再次发出警告，告诉投机者“小心”，许多市场观察人士和投资者将其解读为欧佩克+可能考虑进一步减产，以惩罚那些押注油价下跌的人。
然而，投资者仍在削减多头头寸。
根据盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)分析师Ole Hansen所言，最新数据显示，WTI和布伦特原油期货的多头头寸减少了6.6万份，目前为23.1万份合同。
李峻 译自 海湾新闻网
原文如下：
Why OPEC+ oil supply cuts are failing to boost oil prices
Dubai/London: OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including the bigger producer that pumps around 40 per cent of the world’s crude, has been cutting oil output since November in the face of flagging prices.
Members Saudi Arabia and the bigger producer, the world’s biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher. Yet the move only briefly lifted the market.
Both cuts came in addition to a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 initially introduced in April, and take total output reductions announced to over five million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 per cent of global oil output.
The surprise April announcement deepened production cuts introduced in November, and helped to raise prices by about $9 a barrel to above $87 per barrel in the days that followed.
But benchmark crude prices have shed those gains since, with Brent futures on Tuesday trading at just under $76 per barrel.
The additional cuts, Eurasia Group analysts argue, “will do little to shift bearish sentiment in a market that is consumed with pessimism about the prospects for oil demand growth in the second half of the year”.
Here are the main reasons why OPEC+ output cuts are failing to significantly lift oil prices:
1. Concerns about weak demand
Data from Aisa has sparked fears that the economic recovery from coronavirus lockdowns in the world’s second-largest oil consumer is losing steam.
“The economic recovery in Asia following the lifting of coronavirus restrictions has been noticeably more sluggish than anticipated, even though the data for oil demand proved robust,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
He said the jump in this area oil demand was largely a catch-up effect after it fell last year, and that this growth momentum was likely to slow considerably.
2. Higher interest rates
Adding to worries, leading central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, are warning more interest rates hikes could be on the horizon to fight stubbornly high inflation.
Higher interest rates eat into consumers’ disposable income and could translate into less spending on driving and travelling, limiting oil demand.
They also drive up costs for manufacturers, and data suggests a slowdown in the sector is happening.
“There is no beating around the bush, factories are struggling across the globe as the sector shrank in Japan, the euro zone, the UK and the US whilst slowed last month,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.
This all means investors are not buying into the idea that the second half of 2023 will see a strong rebound in oil demand.
There are doubts in particular over forecasts that significant quantities of oil will need to be taken out of storage for supply to meet demand.
“With both the International Energy Agency and OPEC continuing to forecast draws of about 2 million bpd ... the credibility of these forecasts is diminishing over time, and markets will take some convincing for a meaningful correction to occur,” Eurasia says.
3. US output rising
Faster than expected growth in US output has also been contributing to market pessimism about oil price gains.
The Energy Information Administration projects US crude oil production will climb by 720,000 bpd to 12.61 million bpd this year, above a prior forecast increase of 640,000 bpd.
This compares with around 10 million bpd as recently as 2018.
4. Less bullish
In 2020, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market, saying those who gamble on the oil price would be “ouching like hell”.
He repeated his warning ahead of the June 4 OPEC+ meeting, telling speculators to “watch out”, which many market watchers and investors interpreted as a signal OPEC+ could consider further output cuts to punish those betting on lower prices.
Yet investors continue to pare back long positions.
The latest data show the combined long position in WTI and Brent futures fell by 66,000 contracts to 231,000 ,” according to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
